This is a difficult game to preview. Ireland are without a match in two weeks. Relatively speaking, the Wales game produced a poor performance. Without the context of the game against France, Ireland's health is difficult to assess. But there are certain constants which we can rely on to inform our discourse.
Italy will not test our defence out wide. I can say that with some confidence, even though the Italian debutant out-half, Tobias Botes, is an unknown quantity. New coach, Jacques Brunel, has introduced a revised play-book to the Azzurri this season. But their new found emphasis on a more expansive game has created a sense of, what one might term, obligation, and as such, Italy are moving the ball wide too soon and negating the power of their forwards, where their, albeit diminished, strength lies.
The following statement, to many, will appear self-evident, but this game hinges on Ireland's ability to beat Italy. D'uh. Ireland's greatest weakness is their unwillingness to impose their style on other teams. We are chameleons. When we look in the mirror, we don't recognise what it is that returns our gaze. There is an imbalance in our approach, which seeks to nullify opponents rather than dictate the terms of engagement. This is a deficiency on two fronts; both philosophical and tactical.
If I may paraphrase former Leinster forward Emmet Byrne, who says that rugby, at international level, becomes more about an individual's class (or lack thereof), that is to say, the individual performance becomes more telling and impacts more on a game. This goes some way to explain the, he does it in the Heineken Cup, why can't he do it for Ireland syndrome. But it does not account for the systemic failures of Ireland's defensive performances since the Grand Slam (nor does Byrne diagnose it as the illness, merely he identifies it as a symptom). To that charge, some will no doubt retort, "but what about Ireland's victory against Australia at the World Cup?" But this is not a question of one off performances or the team's ability to play well, but more about the systems and structures employed by the coaches.
What is particularly concerning for Irish supporters, as Matt Williams outlined on "The Breakdown," is that the flaws in the Irish defensive line were present two years ago when the All-Blacks visited Dublin. That fact, has been largely overlooked, as analysis has been conducted specifically in terms of the Welsh, who also beat Ireland in our previous match in the World Cup, where both sides' performances echoed the most recent Six Nations clash.
With the exception of the choke-tackle, Ireland have ceased to innovate and this failing must transmit to the players, who, paradoxically, derive their belief inwardly and from their team mates, but not from the Ireland team as a whole. This, of course, is speculative, though reasonably so. For we must at least ask the question: Are the coaching systems failing the players or vice versa?
The sporadic lack of physical intensity from Ireland over the past year could be resultant, simply from the players not trying, but such a charge does not stand-up to any reasonable challenge, despite Rob Kearney, when in a pre-match interview with the BBC two weeks ago, stating that Ireland's line speed was not up to scratch against Wales and was not, one infers, a tactic. From this, can we extrapolate that the Irish players have little faith in the direction their coaches are giving them? We don't know. This week, Kearney has pointed out that:
"the coaches are there to help us and give us gameplans but ultimately we’re the ones who run things on the field."
The question still stands.
According to Kearney, "defence is a mindset," and for each individual in a defensive line, when you are all that stands between 16 stone and the white-wash, I believe him, but for a team of 15 it is also a structure. If the mindset was off, does that mean the structures are too?
Ireland should beat Italy. Whether the performance recalls the World Cup or the previous Six Nations, I don't know. But this is the first of four games in four weeks for Ireland. So lets hope it's the former and that by the hour mark, Kidney is in a position to empty the bench and that the Irish team reports to camp on Monday without any injury concerns. This team needs momentum, the postponement of the France game may have afforded them that possibility.
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