Seconds Out: Brian Cowen comes out fighting, but as yet, he is alone in the ring.

Perhaps, somewhat anti-climatically, Brian Cowen addressed the nation. And though he sought to bring clarity to Fianna Fáil's leadership uncertainty, we are inevitably left with more questions. That's not to say we didn't learn anything new.


Brian Cowen is ready for a fight. Beyond his behind the scenes duel with Micheál Martin, the Taoiseach, somewhat admirably, is preparing to face the electorate and defend his, and the country's, position. The irony of this performance is that it is precisely the leadership he has failed to show throughout the banking and economic crises of the past two years.


But now, he is doing what he does best; setting himself on an election footing. He has taken the initiative and is showing the backbone his detractors, so far, have failed to show. The announcement of a motion of confidence at Tuesday's parliamentary party meeting suggests he is satisfied he retains the requisite support to endorse his continuing leadership.


Between now and then, both Cowen, Martin and their respective supporters will be nudging, cajoling and jockeying; and Martin in particular, having reportedly taken the temperature of many of his colleagues in the past days, will either have to play his hand or fold. If he chooses the latter option, many Fianna Fáil TDs will see it as an opportunity missed, as a post election change of leadership will lack the sense of revolution, and subsequent impetus, that a heave at Tuesday's meeting would offer.


I can't help but think, that within Fianna Fáil's ranks, there is a sense of delusion, that a push against Cowen will somehow absolve them as a collective, at both cabinet and parliamentary level, in the minds of the electorate. One could argue the Taoiseach inherited many of the problems which he has had to address (the competency of those decisions , is a separate argument and more complicated than this post would allow, but it is one which I will address more comprehensively during the course of the General Election campaign).


Whilst supporters of Fianna Fáil will be dismayed at the prospect of Brian Cowen leading them into an election, it is possible they are greatly over-estimating the redemptive quality Martin would bring in terms of overall seats won, in excess of current polling figures. Though, more important than the worries of partisan Fianna Fáil supporters and TDs, is the effect the Taoiseach's persisting leadership could have on the electorate.


For the country as a whole, psychologically, to close the book on this sorry chapter of the State's story, it may be invaluable for Cowen to survive the move against his leadership. His predecessor, Bertie Ahern, weaseled out the back door of front line politics and it is important (as we have seen in the U.K. and U.S.) to be able to hold to account incumbents who have overstayed their welcome.

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