Though it goes against my better nature, I shall try to keep this short, in fact, inversely proportional to the odds, as I see them, of Ireland winning in Paris on Saturday night. That may seem needlessly pejorative, but in my opinion those odds are long and I don't see us winning. Sure, I have an imagination. I can visualise myself at the end of the game, elated, the score reads FT France 20 Ireland 21, but I can't see how.
Let us begin with team selection, where Keith Earls come in at centre to replace Fergus McFadden, the only change from Ireland's opener. His return to the fold is no surprise considering he was Kidney's initial staring midfielder. It may give Ireland more attacking flare, I am reluctant to say definitively, as we may not see much of the ball, but what I can say with certainty is that Earls' inclusion weakens our defence. It is possible that off French attacking set-plays, Bowe will switch with the Munster man, but in open play, Rougerie and Fofana will target Earls and his relatively slight 14 stone(90kg) frame.
The only changes France have made come in the pack. Imanol Harinordoquy, one of three world class number 8s in the Six Nations returns to the starting fifteen but switches to openside flanker. His inclusion suggests France coach Saint-Andre is mindful of Ireland's strength in the line-out. Jean-Baptiste Poux, whose squished behind sat on the bench for most of France's opening match, will instead, have his derrière in the face of Pascal Pape in the French scrum and will prove a more stern test for Cian Healy than the man he is replacing, Vincent Debaty. The enforced change at scrum-half, where Morgan Parra starts, in no way weakens Les Bleus.
I am working on the assumption that Ireland will "front-up" physically because if last week's performance is replicated we could lose by 30 points. As ever, the breakdown will be key, particularly as Bernard Jackman outlined this morning with this tweet:
"Just looking at the penalty stats from last weekend courtesy of @ruckingoodstats and the penalty count against were very low. Ire 6, Wales 6, Scot 9, Eng 9, Fra 8, Ita 7 which means either every teams discipline was excellent or the refs were much more lenient. The coaches will have analysed this and you may see more contesting at the breakdown in particular which could lead to a spike in penalties this week as refs try and regain control."
Incidentally, I noticed early during Ireland's game against Wales that there were two occasions when Irish players (Ferris was one), who were first to the ruck after the tackle, and got their hands on the ball, failed to win penalties, which they would have expected to. It took us until after half-time to alter our tactics at the breakdown and on the basis of Jackman's observations Ireland must adapt more quickly to align themselves with the referee's interpretation.
Whilst we're on the topic, a word must again be said about match referee Dave Pearson, whose poor officiating as touch-judge during Ireland's first game was to have a huge bearing on the result, as he recommended a yellow card for an offence which clearly warranted a red. For Ulster rugby fans, this served merely to compound their disgruntled feelings, for in their final European pool match in Clermont, they conceded a try as a result of foul play (off the ball) which Pearson, who was the referee, should have spotted. They lost the game by one score. To extend the criticism, the word homer springs to mind. We can hope that tomorrow, somewhere in his subconscious lurks the notion that he owes us one.
Ireland's defensive performance last Sunday is a major concern ahead of Saturday evening's clash. But I believe the problems of poor line-speed will have been rectified in the subsequent five days the squad have spent together. Murray must attack the fringes and the wing forwards must play on his shoulder. It is imperative that Ireland force the French to commit numbers at the breakdown because there was good depth to some of our attacking play last week. Whilst François Trinh-Duc, at out-half, can be brilliant, he can also be mentally fragile, or to use the parlance, he can be "got at." So expect Stephen Ferris to seek him out early.
OK, so we've established that it's not in my nature to be concise. I'm a believer of the Frasier Crane axiom "if less is more, imagine how much more, more is." But nor is it in my nature to be overly pessimistic. We're the underdog, so what if I don't expect Ireland to win. That's what hope is for.
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