And what of Micheál Martin? For he too seeks to brand himself as the candidate of change, he who has been in cabinet for 14 years. Where do FF grassroots get their motivation from? He will need every last splutter the Fianna Fáil machine, running perilously low on gas, has to give him. Martin will need to win 39 seats or more to avoid being anointed as the least successful FF election leader in history.
Martin has identified Sinn Féin and Labour as his battlegrounds, and if he can attack Fine Gael while doing it all the better. His employment of the term “tug of war politics,” at his party’s campaign launch, neatly highlights the policy gulf that exists between the two would-be government partners, and is perhaps a euphemism for; a vote for Labour is a vote for Fine Gael. This strategy gains credibility in the wake of both FG and Labour candidates foolishly attacking one another in the past week.
Normally I would not advocate a pre-election pact, and allow Fine Gael and Labour to battle it out on the merits of their separate platforms, and if the time comes, to negotiate a programme for government and bridge the ideological chasm. But under these circumstances, it is vital that the electorate is presented with a cohesive plan and message; a one-hymn-sheet-only agreed manifesto where economic policy, financial regulation, job creation, education investment and a strategy to rebuild brand Ireland that all the people of Ireland can support, or not.
With these doubts, these unanswerables, Fianna Fáil may gain ground playing on the anxiety such uncertainty fosters. But what Martin is overlooking (publicly, at least - but then, what else can he do?) is that for now the only certainty the country needs is to know that FF will be confined to the opposition benches for the foreseeable future.
This may be an election where anti-government (FF) rhetoric is enough to win, but the electorate should hold the probable usurpers to a higher standard than that. Political reform must feature prominently in the discourse of #ge2011.
As for Sinn Féin, are they going to run a campaign, solely mimicking the anger of voters? Can they afford a leader, in Adams, who is out of his depth economically, when it is an issue of singular importance in this election? Are they capable of shaping a narrative that outlines the political and policy failure of Fianna Fáil's bank guarantee, bailout and NAMA, beyond lip-synching the average coat on a bar stool?
Can Fine Gael outline feasible policy positions that they belive in and resist a manifesto, which has been vetted and combed over by the PR department? Public sector reform is music to the ears of most disgruntled private sector workers but will the detail of such reform stand up to scrutiny?
The axiom, the only poll that counts is the one on the 25th, is true, but only up to a point. In American election campaigns they have a phrase, "the big mo." Opinion polls in the run up to elections can invigorate campaigns deemed to have momentum and cut the legs of those without it.
Does it even matter? Does Fianna Fáil have any credibility when attacking opponents’ policies? For even when FF receives, what on the face of it seems good news, for example, a reduction in numbers of un-employed, closer inspection exorcises any feelings of mitigation and solidifies what many assert is the total betrayal of their self-aggrandised and readily espoused founding principles.
Falls in the live register figures, announced today, must be tempered with the ESRI's (Economic and Social Research Institute) assertion that the numbers of Irish jobless has actually risen, whilst the overall decline can be accounted for by a significant drop in non-Irish job-seekers, many of whom are merely returning home.
Will the Irish electorate show the steel at the ballot box that they failed to show in 2007, when the pre-election opinion poll invective, whist not as bilious as now, nonetheless suggested a Fianna Fáil defeat? Fine Gael losing the 2007 election was a blessing in disguise. In 2011, nothing other than a victory which inflicts severe electoral damage to Fianna Fáil can be countenanced.
To meet the enormous challenge facing Fianna Fail, Micheál Martin it seems has borrowed the Gordon Brown/New Labour play book, a word cloud of which would probably feature, solely, the word FEAR.
Some will regard Eamon Gilmore's adamant declaration that we must change the deal with the IMF as primal polemic chest beating, but others will feel he is mirroring their own frustration, and as we struggle to regain some sort of national pride, may clench a fist in defiant unity. Even if we know it's a lie, maybe it's a lie we want to believe.