Tuesday, 30 March 2010

Na-na, na-na, na-na,na-na, na-na, na-na, na-na, na-na NA-MA!



When Dick Grayson, commented, "gosh, economics sure is a dull subject," Bruce Wayne retorted thus, "Oh you must be jesting, Dick. Economics, dull?. The glamour, the romance of commerce. It's the very lifeblood of our country's society."


The first transfer of loans to NAMA have been completed with Irish Nationwide and EBS transferring €2.6 billion and €875 million respectively.  NAMA will acquire loans with a nominal value of €16 billion for €8.5 billion at an average discount of 47%. This 'haircut' represents a short-back and sides for the banks when perhaps they went in for a trim. It was widely touted that the overall 'haircut' would be the region of 30%. You can find the details of the first loan transfers here.


The headline grabber is the extent of the greed, incompetence and the toxicity of loans in Anglo Irish Bank. The initial €5 billion that NAMA will pay for €10 billion of Anglo loans could rise to between  €18 billion and €22 billion. These staggering figures can be contextualised by noting that income tax revenue in Ireland is approximately €15 billion per annum, whilst the total tax take is around €35 billion, over a twelve month period. The expectation was that Anglo would require 12 or 13 billion Euro.

The Minister for Finance claims this to be the 'least worst solution,' as to wind down the bank over a ten year period will cost €30 billion, but this figure is as yet, unsupported. Though, as the cost of winding the bank down and the cost of keeping it as a going concern is narrowing, this argument weakens weekly.


"I understand the impulse people have to obliterate this bank from the system," Lenihan said in the Dáil today of Anglo.


In fact just an hour ago on RTÉ Six-One news, Minister Lenihan said to wind down Anglo Irish immediately would cost €70 billion. The consensus among economists seems to be that Irish Nationwide and Anglo will offer no return on tax payers money.


Here are some juicy tit-bits for you to impress your friends with:


The total cost to the tax payer could be as high as €40 billion but if that doesn't sound big enough to you, maybe you can take a leaf out of Labour leader Eamon Gilmore's book and say, forty-thousand-million Euro.


Originally it was hoped NAMA would make €5 billion over ten years but this figure, in the light of today's revelations, was wildly optimistic.


NAMA will cost €26,000 for every family in Ireland.


NAMA has paid €1.3 billion for loans for land which includes development that is less than 30% completed.


One bank delivered 100,000 pages of loan documents.


There are 15,000 surplus hotel beds in Ireland and NAMA has just paid €800 million for loans for hotels.


Brian Lenihan, assures us that the 'interests of the tax payer are of paramount importance.' But the tax payer is  exposed and left with no choice but to pick up the tab for the banks' greed and incompetence. Two shining examples of banking mismanagement where highlighted by a contributor to RTÉ's live coverage, reminding us that developer Liam Carroll was given €300 million in loans by Anglo Irish without legally securing collateral and in Britain, A.I.B. loaned €800 million to a man with a criminal conviction for fraud.


Brian McDonagh, Chief Executive of NAMA, said for those 'not cooperating, we will use the full riggers of the law' and that their valuations of the loans 'reflect fundamental fair value.'


The success or failure of NAMA will not be determined in the short-term. What will be known in the more immediate future is the Fianna Fáil backbenchers reaction to NAMA and Brian Cowen's leadership at a parliamentary party meeting scheduled for later this evening or tomorrow morning. Pow! Thwok!

Thursday, 25 March 2010

The thin end of the wedge?



Today, a judge in Limerick granted a special exemption to the Intoxicating Liquor Act, which prohibits publicans from opening on Good Friday. The local vintners made the application on the back of Munster and Leinster's Magners league clash on that day. Under the existing law, the vintners claim they stood to lose up to seven million Euro. The exemption allows publicans to open from 6pm until 11.30pm on Good Friday.


Since this morning's judgement, reaction has been largely one sided. Father Adrian Egan, a Redemtorist priest and rugby supporter in Limerick, contributed to both Newstalk's lunchtime show and to Pat Kenny's radio show on RTÉ. Speaking with Eamon Keane on Newstalk, Father Egan said he felt, 'some degree of disappointment.' He continued, 'it begins to change the nature of the day and the traditions in our society that have been there for so long.  That was a day that was always solemn and different, a time for reflection and quiet.'


The conservative voice of the status quo, have been thus far, more vocal in their opposition to the judgement, than the ultra liberals (to use the phrase of a texter to Pat Kenny) have been in voicing their (presumed) support. Another text into Kenny decried the news stating, 'what have we come to?' It was at this point, I was reminded of  Helen Lovejoy and won't somebody please think of the children. Another text noted that this draws a line in the sand, as Ireland struggles to choose 'morals' over 'money,' like a puppy caught between two masters. Poor Ireland, the one with the waggly tale.


Largely overlooked in today's debate is the role the State continues to play in prescribing the religious doctrines of the Catholic church. Pat Kenny meekly alluded to this in his conversation with Father Egan, noting that, the 'question arises about the nanny state' and whether, 'the state should be deciding' when we drink?


While Kenny may not have satisfactorily followed up this line of questioning, he was at least cognisant of the burning issue of the relationship between the State and the Church. The same cannot be said of Keane on Newstalk, who missed the point when lamenting, 'this could've all been solved of course, if the match was rescheduled.'


That the match was not rescheduled, forced this issue into the realms of public debate via the courts, and it is overdue. The law itself dates back to 1927 and is a legislative remnant of the power the Catholic church once wielded over the hearts and minds of Irish citizens and law makers alike. More than any other time since the inception of the State, the role of the Catholic church in Ireland is up for debate. Opinion on this matter may simply split along generational lines, but this ruling and the subsequent debate, one hopes, is only the thin end of the wedge.

Tuesday, 23 March 2010

Squeaky Bum Time



In Irish rugby there seems to be the opinion that one does not throw an untested youngster into the coalface of an international Six Nations game, especially when your back is against the wall and a Triple Crown is on the line.  Or to borrow football parlance, not when it's 'squeaky bum time.'   The phrase, coined by Alex Ferguson, is particularly apt when assessing Declan Kidney's decision not to introduce changes in the Irish line-out, where next to Leo Cullen's heiny and Shane Jennings derrière sat the polished posterior of Anthony Cronin, where he and the other shiny bottoms remained for the duration of the match. Cronin's two previous appearances to date were as a late replacement in games which by the time of his introduction, had ceased being competitive, namely against Fiji in the Autumn and against Wales, in the penultimate Six Nations round this year.


One wonders if a Roy of the Rovers style, one-nil down with 15 minutes to go in the Cup final substitute appearance, may have made the difference.  The kind where the manager turns to the unproven youngin', the still unknown quantity and with one hand on his shoulder says; go on my son, make a name for yourself.  In the world of top-flight football this is viewed as mere pragmatism.  If something (or someone) is not working, you simply change it.  However, in rugby it is often redefined as ruthlessness and seems to suggest a naivety which has survived and pervaded rugby's evolution post-professionalism in 1995. 


In terms of public relations, perhaps it is right that a Grand Slam offers Declan Kidney protection against the very attacks that were so effectively deployed in the media shift against Eddie O'Sullivan.  Against Scotland, Ireland's performance was strewn with mistakes and Kidney's unwillingness to use his bench is something for which his predecessor was heavily criticised.  


John Hayes was obviously targeted, if not by the Scottish front row then by referee Marius Jonker, who seemed to have his mind made up about 'The Bull' early on.  Struggling for parity in the set-pieces, Hayes was replaced by Buckley in the 78th minute and looked dead on his feet.  It would be disingenuous to suggest that our travails in the scrum were down to the referee.  On more than one occasion he gave Ireland a soft free-kick or penalty (see the penalty awarded to Ireland to level the score at twenty-all).  Ireland have struggled in the front row during this championship. Would Cronin or Buckley have made a difference to Ireland's scrum? Would Cronin and Cullen in the line-out and Jennings at ruck time have changed Ireland's fortunes?  We don't know.  But in the end Ireland lost the game without learning anything new about fringe players such as Cronin and Buckley and their ability to make the leap to international standard when the pressure is on.  To avoid a repeat of our last World Cup outing, Ireland must put their money where their mouth is and develop, particularly in the front row, the squad ethos and competition for places that Kidney and the Irish coaching ticket have espoused since their arrival in the summer of 2008.


The World Cup begins in 18 months and Kidney, who began his tenure with Ireland already a year into the four year cycle, has had less time than most of his contemporaries in which to address the problems of Ireland's squad deficiencies.  In that time Kidney has moved to fill-in the cracks in key positions, notably at fly-half.  However the front row and in particular the tighthead position remain our achilles heel and still a cause for concern.

Monday, 1 March 2010

The Day A Catch Phrase Was Born (on the Bull's big day),



As long as Tommy Bowe has an Irish rugby career, Ryle Nugent will have a job.


It began in last year's Grand Slam decider, in Cardiff.  On that day the Monaghan winger raced through onto a chip from O'Gara and sped away from the Wales defence and Ryle Nugent, RTE's premier rugby commentator, was somewhat excited as Bowe touched down under the posts to score Ireland's second try in a minute.  At the time, Nugent's calling of Bowe's try reminded me of the obligatory Skyward No that finds it's way into so many films in moments of tragedy.  Perhaps Ryle had watched The Godfather III on the eve of the game, but whatever the reason it was a memorable commentary befitting the occasion.


Roll on one year and Ireland, on the back of a heavy defeat to France, found themselves on a sodden Twickenham, in a tight and brutal test match, trailing by three points in the seventy-third minute. Quick ball off the top of a line-out on the English twenty-two saw Bowe take a great line to receive a beautifully timed pass from O'Leary to win the game for Ireland with just minutes to play.  Cue Skyward Bowe.


Bowe had also scored Ireland's first try of the match in the fourth minute, but Ryle is a professional and knows the dangers of peaking too early in a game.  Ryle reserves the Skyward Bowe for only the most important of games.  England at Twickenham always falls into that category.


More than that, I would assert that this is the greatest victory in Irish rugby.  Not just the courageousness of performance, not just Twickenham or England or the response to O'Driscoll's departure (to a head injury) but that this victory, after 15 years of professionalism, reminds us that all we ever loved about Irish rugby is indelible.  The accusation of hyperbole is an attack on sport itself.  Gladiatorial drama and life and death for 80 minutes are intractable characteristics. Or to quote George Hook on RTE on Saturday, rugby was thought up in 'Victorian times' as a sort of 'anti-soccer' and embodied 'purity of effort,' he expounded: 'Irish rugby is played by men North and South of this boarder, it crosses the political, class, and religious divides and I'm bloody proud, bloody proud to be watching this match today'.


As an Ulster man perhaps there is no one in the team who embodies this spirit more than Tommy BowwWWE!!!